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Established 2012
Top Mark Capital
Founded
Partnerships
Annual Letters
Annualized Returns (TMCP, Net of Fees)
Top Mark Capital
Our Philosophy
At the core of our investment approach are three essential principles that guide our perspective and decision-making process. They have led us to develop our own unique cashflow investing strategy. These foundational beliefs enable us to navigate the market with confidence and precision:
- Embrace the Manic Nature of Mr. Market
- Harness the Power of Long-term Thinking
- Challenge Conventions to Achieve Exceptional Outcomes
If you're trying to do better than average, you're lucky if you have four things to buy. To ask for 20 is really asking for egg in your beer.
Charlie Munger
If your behavior and that of your managers is conventional, you’re likely to get conventional results, either good or bad. Only if the behavior is unconventional is your performance likely to be unconventional ...and only if the judgments are superior is your performance likely to be above average.
Howard Marks
When you change the way you look at things, the things you look at change.
Max Planck
The concerns which fail are those which have scattered their capital, which means that they have scattered their brains also. They have investments in this, or that, or the other, here, there and everywhere. “Don’t put all your eggs in one basket” is all wrong. I tell you “put all your eggs in one basket, and then watch that basket.”
Andrew Carnegie
To enjoy a reasonable chance for continued better than average results, the investor must follow policies which are (1) inherently sound and promising, and (2) not popular on Wall Street.
Benjamin Graham
Simplify, and add lightness.
Colin Chapman
TOP MARK CAPITAL
OUR INVESTMENT PROCESS
Our investment process is best described as a flywheel that comprises three key stages: Thematic Analysis, Fundamental Analysis, and Portfolio & Risk Management. Each stage enhances the others, contributing to continuous improvement over time.
Our process utilizes best practices from Venture Capital, Value Investing, and Private Equity.
- Venture-style thematic analysis is used to identify trends and events that are destined to impact and disrupt markets over long time horizons.
- Value based fundamental analysis is applied to surface quality investment opportunities.
- New investments are made, and existing positions are managed, through a Private Equity like, IRR model for portfolio and risk management.
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Stage 1:
Thematic Analysis
We utilize best practices from Venture Capital to analyze trends and events that form the core of the Thematic Analysis stage of our investment process...
- We monitor and analyze the events and trends that affect various industries and markets, such as macroeconomic factors, geopolitical developments, technological innovations, regulatory changes, consumer preferences, etc. and quantitative and/or qualitative methods to evaluate the potential impact and magnitude of these themes on different sectors and regions.
- The most attractive and relevant themes are selected for further research.
- This stage helps us generate a steady pipeline of investment ideas and to stay ahead of the market.
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Stage 2:
Fundament Analysis
We utilize best practices from Value Investors like Warren Buffett to assess the quality and investment return potential of individual assets...
- The output of Stage 1 is a selection of companies that we are interested in learning more about.
- In Stage 2: Fundamental Analysis, we conduct a more traditional bottom-up securities analysis using various sources of information, such as financial statements, industry reports, interviews, etc. Specifically, we assess the business model, the management, the valuation, and the fit within our circle of competency.
- The output of this work is an investment memo which includes an expected IRR (internal rate of return) for each investment that makes it through the process.
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Stage 3:
Portfolio & Risk Management
We utilize best practices from Private Equity in managing our portfolio composition and in establishing risk management procedures...
- The projected IRR (determined in Stage 2) serves as a key input to structuring our portfolio.
- We track our portfolio based on this IRR to target price over an estimated time frame, we’re able to evaluate those potential new investments weighed against those of our existing positions.
- Our intention is to maintain a concentrated portfolio so the bar for inclusion is high.
- TMCP
- TMHP
Established 2012
Top Mark Capital Partners
Established 2023
Top Mark Health Partners
TMHP implements the same investment process and philosophy as TMCP, but with a specific focus on health. Disruptive technology will have an increasingly outsized effect on the healthcare industry in the coming decades. In other words, healthcare is likely to change at an increasing rate. This change creates an opportunity set that we believe will include the types of asymmetric risk/reward profiles that are well suited to the type of research and analysis we do at Top Mark Capital.
Join Our Waitlist
Waitlist members will receive quarterly updates about our partnerships as well as information for prospective partners. Joining our waitlist does not represent any obligation to invest, it merely provides an opportunity for us to start a conversation.
Memo
Nvidia's 5 Risks
2024 Q2
Quarterly Letter
2024 Q1
Quarterly Letter
2023 Q4
Quarterly Letter
NVIDIA’s
CORNERSTONE for UNMATCHED DOMINANCE in AI (CUDA)
Episode 2023.44
Telltales Podcast
Energy / Financials / US Manufacturing / Healthcare / Franchises / Logistics / Commodities
2023 Q3
Quarterly Letter
A Brief History of
Yield Curve Inversions
Forget Blockchain
Generative AI is the real Web3
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Episode 2023.29
Telltales
Plus, a detailed breakdown of the cashflow impact to $MSFT's new $30 / month AI Copilot for Office 365
2023 Q2
Quarterly Letter
2023 Q1
Quarterly Letter
2022
Annual Letter
2022 Q3